Posts Tagged ‘gas prices’

PSU report touts job growth, increased taxes; planned severance tax a concern. Others say study inflates benefits.

STEVE MOCARSKY smocarsky@timesleader.com

Development of the Marcellus Shale has the potential to create more than 200,000 jobs in Pennsylvania during the next 10 years, according to an update to a Penn State University study released on Monday.

The report warned, however, that imposing a state severance tax on the natural gas industry, as Gov. Ed Rendell has proposed, could induce energy companies to redirect their investments to other shale “plays” in the United States. Plays refers to natural gas development in other shale developments.

If that happened, any revenues gained from a severance tax could be offset by losses in sales taxes and income taxes resulting from lower drilling activity and natural gas production as producers shift their capital spending to other shale plays.

Some, however, have expressed doubt about the impact of a severance tax and claims and assumptions about economic benefits and job growth in the report.

The update, commissioned by the Marcellus Shale Coalition, was conducted by professors with the university’s Department of Energy and Mineral Engineering. It supplements a study the department released last July.

The updated study also states that during just the next 18 months, gas drilling activities are expected to create more than $1.8 billion in state and local tax revenues.

“At a time when more than half-a-million people in Pennsylvania are currently out of work, the release of this updated report from Penn State … confirms the critical role that responsible energy development in the commonwealth can play in substantially, perhaps even permanently, reversing that trend,” Kathryn Klaber, president and executive director of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, said in a press release.

“Last year alone, Marcellus producers paid more than $1.7 billion to landowners across the state, and spent more than $4.5 billion total to make these resources available. By the end of this year, that number is expected to double, and millions of Pennsylvanians will find themselves the direct beneficiaries of that growth,” Klaber said.

The updated study finds that Marcellus development will create more than 111,000 new jobs by 2011, a result of an increase in the number of wells developed from the roughly 1,400 in operation today to 2,200 expected during the next 18 months.

All told, by 2011, this work is expected to deliver nearly $1 billion in annual tax revenue to state and local governments.

In addition to generating tax revenue, natural gas development stimulates the economy in two major ways: business-to-business spending and payments to land owners, the study states.

Exploring, drilling, processing and transporting natural gas requires goods and services from many sectors of the economy, such as construction, trucking, steelmaking and engineering services. Gas companies also pay lease and royalty payments to land owners, who also spend and pay taxes on this income.

In 2009, Marcellus gas producers spent a total of $4.5 billion to develop Marcellus Shale gas resources, drilling 710 wells that year. The writers estimate that this spending added $3.9 billion in value to the economy and generated $389 million in state and local tax revenues, and more than 44,000 jobs.

Based on energy company plans to drill 1,743 wells this year, value-added dollars, tax revenue and jobs creation are expected to approximately double for 2010, according to the report. And by 2015, the numbers are expected to nearly double from this year.

Some question PSU report

While the report paints a rosy economic picture for the state, assuming that no severance tax is imposed, some are leery of assumptions and claims made in the report.

Dick Martin, coordinator of the Pennsylvania Forest Coalition, an alliance of outdoor enthusiasts, landowners, churches and conservation groups, first notes a disclaimer in the study, that Penn State does not guarantee the accuracy or usefulness of the information.

Martin said the study contains some flaws.

While the study states that development costs are higher in the Marcellus Shale than in other shale plays, “the industry itself tells its shareholders that the Marcellus is a low-cost gas deposit,” he said.

“Chesapeake Energy has told its shareholders that it can make a 10 percent return when gas prices are at only $2.59 per thousand cubic feet. Gas price today is $4.08,” Martin said.

Martin also said the study relies on data and assumptions supplied by the gas industry and that it looks only at benefits and not at costs to communities, infrastructure, environment and regulators.

He said the study does not look at data from other states that either imposed or raised severance taxes. He said there is no evidence that severance taxes affect either production or investment in states that impose or raise severance taxes.

Martin pointed to a review by the state Budget and Policy Center of the study Penn State released in July, saying the review is still valid because the update is based on the 2009 report and used the same methodology.

The review claims that the 2009 Penn State report “overplays the positive impacts of increased natural gas production, while minimizing the negative.”

Among other flaws, the report “exaggerates the impact a severance tax would have on development of the Marcellus Shale and overstates what taxes the industry now pays, going so far as to count fishing and hunting license fees paid by those who benefit from the industry as a tax due to industry activity,” the review states.

Also according to the review, the report acknowledges that many drillers will avoid corporate taxes, paying the much lower personal income tax or avoiding taxes altogether through deductions.

The report also “inflates the economic impact of expanded gas production in Pennsylvania to puff up the industry’s economic promise,” the review states.

Steve Mocarsky, a Times Leader staff writer, may be reached at 970-7311.

Copyright: Times Leader

Cleaner than coal and cheaper than oil, a 90-year supply is under our feet, experts say.

By MARK WILLIAMSAP Energy Writer

An unlikely source of energy has emerged to meet international demands that the United States do more to fight global warming: It’s cleaner than coal, cheaper than oil and a 90-year supply is under our feet.

It’s natural gas, the same fossil fuel that was in such short supply a decade ago that it was deemed unreliable. It’s now being uncovered at such a rapid pace that its price is near a seven-year low.

Long used to heat half the nation’s homes, it’s becoming the fuel of choice when building new power plants. Someday, it may win wider acceptance as a replacement for gasoline in our cars and trucks.

Natural gas’ abundance and low price come as governments around the world debate how to curtail carbon dioxide and other pollution that contribute to global warming. The likely outcome is a tax on companies that spew excessive greenhouse gases. Utilities and other companies see natural gas as a way to lower emissions — and their costs. Yet politicians aren’t stumping for it.

In June, President Barack Obama lumped natural gas with oil and coal as energy sources the nation must move away from. He touts alternative sources — solar, wind and biofuels derived from corn and other plants. In Congress, the energy debate has focused on finding cleaner coal and saving thousands of mining jobs from West Virginia to Wyoming.

Utilities in the U.S. aren’t waiting for Washington to jump on the gas bandwagon. Looming climate legislation has altered the calculus that they use to determine the cheapest way to deliver power. Coal may still be cheaper, but natural gas emits half as much carbon when burned to generate the same amount electricity.

Today, about 27 percent of the nation’s carbon dioxide emissions come from coal-fired power plants, which generate 44 percent of the electricity used in the U.S. Just under 25 percent of power comes from burning natural gas, more than double its share a decade ago but still with room to grow.

But the fuel has to be plentiful and its price stable — and that has not always been the case with natural gas. In the 1990s, factories that wanted to burn gas instead of coal had to install equipment that did both because the gas supply was uncertain and wild price swings were common. In some states, because of feared shortages, homebuilders were told new gas hookups were banned.

It’s a different story today. Energy experts believe that the huge volume of supply now will ease price swings and supply worries.

Gas now trades on futures markets for about $5.50 per 1,000 cubic feet. While that’s up from a recent low of $2.41 in September as the recession reduced demand and storage caverns filled to overflowing, it’s less than half what it was in the summer of 2008 when oil prices surged close to $150 a barrel.

Oil and gas prices trends have since diverged, due to the recession and the growing realization of just how much gas has been discovered in the last three years. That’s thanks to the introduction of horizontal drilling technology that has unlocked stunning amounts of gas in what were before off-limits shale formations. Estimates of total gas reserves have jumped 58 percent from 2004 to 2008, giving the U.S. a 90-year supply at the current usage rate of about 23 trillion cubic feet of year.

The only question is whether enough gas can be delivered at affordable enough prices for these trends to accelerate.

The world’s largest oil company, Exxon Mobil Corp., gave its answer last Monday when it announced a $30 billion deal to acquire XTO Energy Inc. The move will make it the country’s No. 1 producer of natural gas.

Exxon expects to be able to dramatically boost natural gas sales to electric utilities. In fact, CEO Rex Tillerson says that’s why the deal is such a smart investment.

Tillerson says he sees demand for natural gas growing 50 percent by 2030, much of it for electricity generation and running factories. Decisions being made by executives at power companies lend credence to that forecast.

Consider Progress Energy Inc., which scrapped a $2 billion plan this month to add scrubbers needed to reduce sulfur emissions at 4 older coal-fired power plants in North Carolina. Instead, it will phase out those plants and redirect a portion of those funds toward cleaner burning gas-fired plants.

Lloyd Yates, CEO of Progess Energy Carolina, says planners were 99 percent certain that retrofitting plants made sense when they began a review late last year. But then gas prices began falling and the recession prompted gas-turbine makers to slash prices just as global warming pressures intensified.

“Everyone saw it pretty quickly,” he says. Out went coal, in comes gas. “The environmental component of coal is where we see instability.”

Nevada power company NV Energy Inc. canceled plans for a $5 billion coal-fired plant early this year. That came after its homestate senator, Majority Leader Harry Reid, made it clear he would fight to block its approval, and executives’ fears mounted about the costs of meeting future environmental rules.

“It was obvious to us that Congress or the EPA or both were going to act to reduce carbon emissions,” said CEO Michael Yackira, whose utility already gets two-thirds of its electricity from gas-fired units. “Without understanding the economic ramifications, it would have been foolish for us to go forward.”

Even with an expected jump in demand from utilities, gas prices won’t rise much beyond $6.50 per 1,000 cubic feet for years to come, says Ken Medlock, an energy fellow at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston. That tracks an Energy Department estimate made last week.

Such forecasts are based in part on a belief that the recent spurt in gas discoveries may only be the start of a golden age for gas drillers — one that creates wealth that rivals the so-called Gusher Age of the early 20th century, when strikes in Texas created a new class of oil barons.

XTO, the company that Exxon is buying, was one of the pioneers in developing new drilling technologies that allow a single well to descend 9,000 feet and then bore horizontally through shale formations up to 1 1/2 miles away. Water, sand and chemical additives are pumped through these pipes to unlock trillions of cubic feet of natural gas that until recently had been judged unobtainable.

Even with the big increases in reserves they were logging, expansion plans by XTO and its rivals were limited by the debt they took on to finance these projects that can cost as much as $3 million apiece.

Under Exxon, which earned $45.2 billion last year, that barrier has been obliterated.

Copyright: Times Leader